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 The basic idea that Strauss and Howe are trying to get across in this book is that history is cyclical.  To prove that point, they set out to determine exactly what that cycle looks like.  In the fourth turning, subtitled  ”An American Prophecy”, they go about looking through history in order to arrive at a pattern that might help us to better understand the future - or at least put ourselves in a place ready for the future.

The cycle, as they see it, can generally be traced to 4 archetypal “generations” that follow one another in 4 archetypal “seasons” that are brought about by the interaction between those generations and their characteristics.  Each of the 4 generations and their seasons make up a “saeculum”, a generational year - after which the cycle begins again.

The worrisome part of the book is that Stauss and Howe tell us that we are currently at the end of our saeculum, which means “generational winter” which will bring a freeze and death to much that we see living today.  In a later edition, Stauss and Howe identify the major crisis of that “generational winter” as the terrorist attacks on September 11th, 2001 - which happened about 24 years before they thought it might while writing this book in 1997.  

My own generation, the 13th Generation or “Gen X”, is a largely survivalist generation with a jaded personality.  The generation immediately older than me, the generation of my parents, is the Boomer generation. The generation older than them, the Korean War era “Silent” generation.  Normally I have more interaction, however, with the generation directly younger than me - the Millenials.  

As I was reading this book, I was engaging in meetings with people who were largely outside of my generation - largely Boomers with a few Silent.  Reflecting on my interactions with them, I was amazed at how precisely it seemed that Stauss and Howe nailed our conflicts with one another. This led to my major critical thought about the book: Are these conflicts and cycles real, or is this simply self fulfilling prophecy.  

I thought to myself, is this nothing more than a generations-styled horoscope?  I can understand the horoscope on three levels (without the silly “mumbo-jumbo” way of understanding them):

1. A horoscope may appear true because you make it so after reading it (self-fulfilling)

2. A horoscope may appear true because it is generally vague enough to fit in a variety of experiences 

3. A horoscope may simply explain how people born in different times of the year experience a different cycle and rhythm of life than people born in other times of the year

To fully believe what Stauss and Howe have to offer, one has to at least hold the possibility that “3” might be possible.  It might be possible to understand generational interactions, and therefore history, by examining the cycle of birth (and subsequent death) of those generations.

While the predictive power of Stauss and Howe’s book may be seen as the greatest “pay-off” of their research, it is not the greatest proof.  The greatest proof of Strauss and Howe’s theory of a 4-generation cycle is to examine how X’ers and Millenials and the upcoming generation (Alpha’s?) will attempt to live together in unity.  We have had our crisis, now what do we look to?

Yet perhaps the greatest real power of this book is simply to cross generational boundaries with the notion of having generational diversity that is somewhat understandable.  If I can understand the generations on either side of mine (the Boomers, the Millenials), or at least grant them the ability to be themselves - then perhaps I can be better suited to love them as my neighbor and as myself.

Image: Goodreads